Bath 14:30 Race Preview

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f 11y on firm ground. Eight two-year-olds compete in this restricted race type, the majority raced, predominantly geldings, colts & two fillies. Danfazi has been kept busy by rookie-trainer Kristin Stubbs, taking over the role which was so ably handled by her mother. This son of Dandy Man is a good-looking chestnut gelding with plenty of pace to burn, who could well enjoy this super-fast ground. He has run creditably in four starts so far, hitting the frame on each occasion and beaten by no more than four lengths. In truth, this April foal has done little wrong and with a touch of luck could well have tasted victory by now. This turning course is likely to suit and he will be in the mix at the line. 

Peter Makin hasn’t achieved much success with his two-year-olds in recent years. However, Captain Ryan was relatively fancied over course and distance on debut, although proved a disappointment, showing little after some pace over the first two furlongs. A cheap yearling purchase of just £6,000 by his trainer, this son of Captain Gerrard must have given layers palpitations when sent of 50/1 at Goodwood running  as if his tail was on fire, leading into the final furlong. Favourite backers breathed a sigh of relief when Makin’s youngster floundered in the closing stages. The form of that race has been franked with the second, fourth and sixth either winning or showing ability next start. This gelding is likely to have most of these off the bridle and if a touch fitter for that second start could well take the beating. He may not want to get in a speed dual with Danfazi but could be a fair sort for this grade.

There are a number of form horses who may not have show much ability on debut but could progress from their racecourse bows. 

Jamie Osborne is a superb trainer who knows his juveniles, often placing them well. Dawnfromthepast is a full brother to Dawnfromthepast, who many readers will recall a talented sprinter for this stable. This son of Tagula is a good-looking colt who was quite fancied in the betting for a poor-looking race at Brighton. By all accounts he ran disappointing. Osborne suggested that this chestnut wasn’t in the same league as his brother but did conclude that he would learn & progress with racing. Horses should never be written off after one race because a good few transform with experience under their belt. Certainly ample improvement is needed to give any hope. The betting will probably be the best guide although the stable do not feature the best strike rate with fancied debutantes when racing on their second start. Moreover, their unfancied debutantes are usually the ones to note if backed second start. A difficult horse to assess. If priced 13/2 & less it would bring more confidence. However, I would take a watching brief.

Monsieur Blanc didn’t catch many pigeons when making his debut at Windsor. However, this £10,000 yearling purchase may be worth noting. Denis Coakley has a truly fantastic record at this course with his juveniles. In general, they win on debut but such is his performance at this seaside course that it would be foolish to ignore this son of Kheleyf. He was well backed at Windsor but trailed down the field and needs much more here. His followers will need to keep the faith if hoping for ability but stranger things have happened. If substantially backed it would be worthy of note. Could be worth a speculative punt if fancy odds are available. 

Sartorialist looked to be second string for Stan Moore when competing on debut at Chepstow. To be fair that was a very restricted race type although the winner finally got his act together and although no more than an average campaigner has something. Moore’s first string ran well in second and this bay gelding ran with promise, making up ground after a slow start. In fact, at one point he looked to press for the lead only to tire in the closing stages. This February foal has size and scope to progress with racing and should be sharper for that initial start. The stable usually have their juveniles primed for their second start. The betting is the best guide and if priced 13/2 & less has fair in and place claims.

One of two fillies in the field, Scooping hails from Richard Hannon’s stable which can do little wrong with their youngsters. This daughter of Dylan Thomas was a shorter price than their raced representative that day who finished second. That could well indicate that better was expected. The betting is probably the best guide although breeding suggests a greater trip may be more suitable. If substantially backed, there could be better to come. 

Debutantes The Doyle Machine & Douneedahand are best watched.

Conclusion: An intriguing but tricky race. Danfazi is a fair horse for this grade, speedy and experienced, but has his limitations. Stubbs’ horse is a battler and this firm ground may just help him last to the line. Captain Ryan is a similar type and if Goodwood’s performance is anything to go by, will not lack for pace. He could well make a bold show and if fitter for those first two starts good take some pegging back. There is a slight concern he could be a short runner, which tempers enthusiasm for an each way bet. If betting, I would go for a straight win and try and lay a few quid in-running if touching short odds. Could be the horse to beat. The others have something to prove and the betting is the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less I would give Scooping, Sartorialist & Dawnfromthepast each way claims. Monsieur Blanc comes from a stable who often steal the show at this course. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see this horse backed and show marked improvement. Could be worth a speculative punt if fancy odds are on offer. 

Upcoming posts will include a preview and analysis of some of the biggest  races and festivals of the year, with the Irish Derby on the 29th June one of the most imminent. We will be discussing how to bet on the Irish Derby and who look like the value picks in what promises to be a competitive affair.

This article has been written by High Class Equine who specialise in two-year-old horse racing. 

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February 2018
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