When the favourite loses generally the bookmakers win and win more. The horse is the favourite because it has been supported and has received the most bets and most money placed on them.
You can see by the table below the % of winning favourites throughout 2012. You can see that the winter months were better for favourites than the summer, but taking the year as a whole the average was at 34.41%.
So around 65% of favourites lost. So you could argue that the bookmakers are not very good at predicting winners! But as we know there is more to them shortening and lengthening prices.
So how can we benefit from knowing that on average 65% of favourites lose? The way you can do it is to write down all the favourites over all the meetings, and add up the % that each favourite currently offers in comparison to the rest of the book.
So you may have the 1st race where the total book % is 120% and the favourite is at say 5/2 (28.57%), and on the 2nd race the total book % is 110% but the favourite is 3/1(25%).
Race 1 8 run (5/2) 28.57%
Race 2 7 run (3/1) 25.00%
Race 3 11run (7/4) 36.36%
Race 4 8 run (6/4) 40.00%
Race 5 16run (7/1) 12.50%
Race 6 9 run (4/1) 20.00%
When you have these percentages written down across ALL THE CARDS and side by side it becomes much easier to see and read weak favourites, compare and contrast as they use to say in your school exams.
When you are armed with the above stats and knowing that on a regular 6 runner race card a maximum of 3 favourites are going to win at a particular meeting it becomes easier to intuitively see what is happening, although do be aware that one 1 day 6 favourites could win on a race card and the next day 0 favourites win on a race card.
These stats are just the starting point on your laying quest and further investigation is always needed but by utilising some of the processes bookmakers use you can reap some of the benefits and betting offers.