Can Many Clouds win the Grand National again in 2016?

In 2015, Many Clouds stayed on to win the National and this year’s top weight could secure back-to-back victories with heavy rain predicted at Aintree throughout the week. And with the reliable Leighton Aspell, who has ridden the last two winners of this prestigious race, could write his name into the history books with a third consecutive victory.

It won’t be easy. The National is a lottery but providing Many Clouds jumps well, he should stay on and may pip his nearest rivals to the finishing line. As of April 3rd, Many Clouds is 7/1 in Coral’s Grand National betting markets and he could well go off as one of the shortest priced favourites in recent years – especially if the public back Aspell once again.

Aspell’s exploits over the last two races will attract plenty of attention in the betting ring, especially from the general public. However, previous success doesn’t exactly guarantee future victories in the race. In fact, Aspell was the first jockey to win back-to-back Grand Nationals for over 40 years and with a star-studded field, it will be tough this year.

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Many Clouds’ connections believe that he can do it and on his day, it would take a brave man to back against him. The handicapper hasn’t been too kind but that was expected after his impressive victory last year but with a bit of luck, he’s certainly capable. Paul Nicholls, who is 10/1 with Coral to train this year’s winner, has a number of potential challengers – none more so than the dangerous Silviniaco Conti.

Silviniaco Conti loves it at Aintree. While the 10-year-old isn’t getting any younger, he remains a class horse and this may be his final chance to win the big one. In addition, this year’s race is also the last for one of the National’s leading sponsors. Crabbies sponsors the Grand National event in 2016 but as of next year, the colossal 30-fence test will be sponsored by Randox Health.

And with that in mind, the stage could be set for one of the true fairytale stories. Perhaps Silviniaco Conti and Many Clouds will battle it out in the final straight after putting each other to the test over four miles or one of the lesser fancied horses could pip these two supreme thoroughbreds to the title. Either way, one thing’s for sure: it’s going to be a thrilling spectacle – it always is.

Posted in VHT

Grand National 2016 – What price another winning long shot?

By Harvey Mayson

Many Clouds was 25-1 last year when he bounced back from a slightly disappointing run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He is clear favourite at 8-1 following the latest acceptance stage with 96 horses still declared.

Many Clouds has been set to carry 11st 10lbs this season, only 1lb more than last year. He would be the first horse to win The Grand National in successive seasons since the great Red Rum back in 1973-74. Other fancied runners include Doncaster winner The Last Samuri and two-time King George VI winner Silviniaco Conti.

The last ten winners of the Grand National have returned at an average SP of nearly 33-1. Comply Or Die (2008) and Don’t Push It (2010) were joint-favourites but punters have had very little else to celebrate.

Aurora’s Encore was a shock 66-1 winner in 2013 while Mon Mome was virtually friendless at 100-1 in 2009. Given the trend for big priced winners, which horses are the best value each-way bets this year?

Saint Are on course for 2016 Grand National

The first on the short list has to be Saint Are, a gallant runner-up last year but still freely available at 25-1. Tom George has targeted the big race again this year and the ten-year-old has enjoyed a trouble-free preparation.

He was seventh in the Becher Chase over the Aintree fences in December before winning a veterans’ chase at Doncaster in February. He won his previous race before last year’s Grand National so the omens are good for another big run. Saint Are is set to meet Many Clouds on 2lbs better terms and it would be no surprise to see him finish in the frame again.

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Nicky Henderson still chasing elusive Grand National victory

The victory of Sprinter Sacre in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham was a testimony to the training skills of Nicky Henderson. He also produced My Tent Or Yours to finish second in the Champion Hurdle after a lengthy absence. The Grand National continues to elude the Lambourn trainer 37 years after saddling Zongalero to finish second. He has two remaining entries this year in Triolo D’Alene and Hadrian’s Approach, both high class performers.

Triolo D’Alene won the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in 2013 off a mark of 147 and did not race again until the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The booking of Tony McCoy encouraged punters to back the French-bred gelding in to 10-1 but he was never a factor behind Lord Windermere. He was subsequently pulled up in the Grand National and has had his training problems since.

He has proven form over the Aintree fences having won the Topham Chase in 2013. He won over two and a half miles at Kempton in January in ground softer than he likes. He was slightly disappointing in similar conditions at Ascot behind Silviniaco Conti but will be a serious contender if Henderson can get him to the National in good form.

Hadrian’s Approach won the Bet365 Gold Cup in 2014 off a handicap mark of 146 and is only 1lb higher at Aintree. He also prefers faster ground and was pulled up on his seasonal debut at Sandown in testing conditions. He was not disgraced when finishing seventh at Kempton in the BetBright Chase in February.

Alvarado bidding to extend Grand National sequence

The remarkable run of placed horses in the Grand National for Mr and Mrs William Rucker was extended to seven successive years by Alvarado in 2015. Their good fortune at Aintree began with State Of Play in 2009, 2010 and 2011 before Cappa Bleu finished in the frame in 2012 and 2013.

Alvarado has been fourth in the last two seasons and is set to return at the age of eleven. He had a pipe-opener at Newbury at the start of March and Fergal O’Brien will be doing everything he can to maintain the sequence. Jockey Paul Moloney has been aboard each of the Rucker runners and has now negotiated 210 Grand National fences without falling.

Posted in Guest Posts

Cheltenham Day 4 Pointers

Another year of Cheltenham draws to a close today and we will be looking to go out with a bang! Here are our thoughts on the day:

1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1)

Who Dares Wins silk WHO DARES WINS 12/1 ew (4 places Paddy Power & Stan James)

Useful flat performer and made a promising start to obstacles. A decent 4th last time out round here and on better terms today. Should go well again.

 

2.10 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

Starchitect silk STARCHITECT 12/1 ew (5 places most bookmakers)

Shaped well for a long way on return/debut for Pipe yard and should strip fitter as a result here. Capable of better.

 

2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Spa Novices' Hurdle)

Shantou Village silk SHANTOU VILLAGE 4/1

Course winner during the winter and a good second behind subsequent festival winner Yanworth last time in the mud. Will appreciate this sounder surface and leading claims.

 

3.30 Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)

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Don Cossack silk DON COSSACK 11/4

Top class chaser who fell in the King George when looking like the likely winner. Confidence boosting win at Thurles since and should be bang on here once again.

 

4.10 St. James's Place Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup

 PAINT THE CLOUDS 6/1 EW (4 places most bookmakers)

3rd in this last year when favourite, better conditions today will suit, and good reappearance run last time out at Doncaster to set him up nicely.

 

4.50 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

Squouateur silk SQUOUATEUR 7/2 

Still largely unexposed and was very impressive when winning last time, winning with any amount in hand. Booking of Jack Kennedy is a big plus and should go close today.

 

5.30 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Grade 3 Handicap)

 CHRIS PEA GREEN 20/1 ew

One of the lesser exposed horses in this, and although jumping leaves something to be desired looks a big price from this weight and will strip fitter for latest run at Sandown.

Posted in VHT Tips

Cheltenham Day 3 Pointers

Came down to earth with a bump yesterday after such an impressive first day, and it will be good to bounce back with a few winners today. Even for those who were backing the favourite, nobody could begrudge Sprinter Sacre a smile with his return to the winners enclosure, one of the highlights of the day!

Here are our thoughts for each race of the day:

1.30 JLT Novices' Chase (Grade 1)

Maroon, white star, armlets and star on cap. OUTLANDER 5/1 ew

Impressive hurdler who has made excellent start to chase career. Really solid jumper and should be involved here if continues in that vein.

2.10 Pertemps Network Final (Listed Handicap Hurdle)

 OUR KAEMPFER 10/1 ew

Siting on a good mark, was unlucky when brought down last time out at Haydock after a good 2nd the time before. Had a small break and should be more than ready for this challenge now.

2.50 Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)

 VAUTOUR evens & Road To Riches w/o fav at 4/1

An interesting change in targets for Vautour team makes this into a strong contest, but he is the class chaser in this and if arrives here at 100% should have no problem in seeing off this field.

3.30 Ryanair World Hurdle (Grade 1)
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Dark green and orange (quartered), dark green sleeves, hooped cap. COLE HARDEN 7/1 ew

Thistlecrack will be a hard nut to crack here but we are very much drawn to the claims of last year's and could potentially sneak a big upset here. The return to faster ground very much in favour and should put up a fight for retaining crown.

4.10 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (Grade 3 Handicap Chase)

 FINGAL BAY 10/1 ew (5 places most bookmakers)

An old favourite of ours who wasn't at best last time out but capable of a big performance in here in first time tongue tie and blinkers.

4.50 Trull House Stud Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2)

Pink, light green spots, pink sleeves and cap. LIMINI 5/6

Hot prospect and very hard to see past in this.

5.30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)

 UPSWING 9/1 ew (5 places bet365 and ladbrokes)

Best excused latest effort when upped in trip in the mud and the return to this trip and a sounder surface in definitely in favour.

Posted in VHT Tips

Cheltenham Day 2 Pointers

It was a fantastic way to kick off the festival for followers of the blog, with 4 winners and some place money picked up, with the highlight being Un Temps Pour Tout forging clear at 16/1.

Here are today's thoughts in each race, good luck everyone!

1.30 Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)

Emerald green, yellow hoops, white cap. YANWORTH 6/4

Yanworth is the real class act here, having been increasingly impressive with each race over hurdles. Best performance to date last time out when upped in trip round here, slamming the field by 7 lengths. Yorkhill is a worthy opponent and has plenty of scope but at the prices we are firmly in the Alan King corner.

2.10 RSA Chase (Grade 1 Novices' Chase)

Emerald green, yellow hoops, white cap. MORE OF THAT 15/8

Won at last year's festival and twice round here over the winter.Only beaten on the one start and with more to come should be hard to beat. No More Heroes looks an exciting chase prospect too but may just not have enough for our selection today.

2.50 Coral Cup (Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle)

 HUNTERS HOOF 20/1 EW (Coral playing 6 places)

Won on reappearance in October before floundering in the mud next time out. That run is easily enough excused, sneaks in off bottom weight here and looks worth a chance in what is a bit of a lottery.

3.30 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)
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Light blue, orange star, light blue sleeves, orange stars, light blue cap, orange star. UN DE SCEAUX 5/6

A superstar and hard to see past him here unless jumping fails him here. 

4.10 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)

 BALTHAZAR KING 6/1 EW 

A real favourite of ours over the years and won us a fair few races so despite falling in last year's Grand National we are happy to stay loyal here. Knows way round here better than anyone.

4.50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

 MESSIRE DES OBEAUX 14/1 EW (Bet365 paying 5 places)

French import who made a more than pleasing UK debut for Alan King when a close 3rd last time out. Is a very interesting prospect with more to come and worth a chance in an pen race.

5.30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1 Standard Open NH Flat Race)

 NEW TO THIS TOWN 11/1 EW (4 places with most bookmakers)

Two wins from two in bumpers and with more to come looks a steal of a price in this. 

Posted in VHT Tips

Cheltenham Day 1 Pointers

Every year come mid-March, the eyes of the racing world point towards what is the biggest National Hunt festival of the year, an exciting and nervous occasion for all involved. The Cheltenham roar has become a symbol of the atmosphere and excitement that the week of racing represents. Come the raising of the tape on day 1 that atmosphere and anticipation will come to a climax for punters and connections alike. 

The action begins today at 1.30pm, with some very interesting puzzles for punters to indulge over. We will take a look at each race for day one and what we can expect to come from the line ups and good value betting propositions: 

1.30 Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)

Altior silk ALTIOR 4/1

The Walsh/Mullins combination will be looking to strike early on Day 1 again, but we are more happy to take the prices available. Proved to be a smart hurdler over the autumn and having won over C&D in November looks to be a solid proposition to get people off to a good priced winning start to the festival.

2.10 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Novices' Grade 1)

Douvan silk DOUVAN 2/5 No Bet

Will be almost impossible to beat you have to feel here, and can prove superstar status with a win here. No bet for us at the prices but one for bumping up any accas you are having a dabble with.

2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Un Temps Pour Tout silk UN TEMPS POUR TOUT 16/1 ew

Beg To Differ silk BEG TO DIFFER 12/1 ew (5 places with Paddy Power)

A real Cheltenham puzzle here and the two that we think are worth having a go at are both tempting prices. Pipe yard have a classy hurdler who hasn't shaped too badly over fences but still has a bit to prove in this sphere. Looks capable of much better and we can see a big performance here.

On the other hand, Beg To Differ has made an excellent start to the larger obstacles and with Visor on again should be able to get involved. 

 

3.30 Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)

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 THE NEW ONE 6/1 ew

Unlucky not to win this 2 years ago and struggled to really show full potential over the years. Can get involved today, and we are quite happy to oppose Annie Power over this trip.

 

4.10 OLBG Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1)

Pink, light green spots, pink sleeves and cap. VROUM VROUM MAG Evens

Has everything going for her here and hard to back against even at the short prices.Unbeaten in 8 starts and this yard have exceptional record in this.

 

4.50 The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup

Southfield Royale silk SOUTHFIELD ROYALE 15/2 ew (4 places with Paddy Power)

Impressive since going chasing and progressing nicely, staying on strongly in penultimate start at Doncaster in the mud. Needs to make further steps here and prove gets the trip, but indications are that should handle this and potentially thrive.

 

5.30 Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed)

Willows Saviour silk WILLOWS SAVIOUR 10/1 ew (5 places with some bookamkers)

Good return to action having been off the track for sometime over the winter and good run last time up in trip should set him up nicely for this challenge. Sitting on a good mark now and worth a chance at the prices.

Paddy Power are offering refunds on all horses that finish second throughout the festival, worth having a look at especially in your big bets.

Posted in VHT Tips

Saturday Racing Preview

golden horn

Preview kindly provided by @TheLooseHorse

Big day of racing and with Cheltenham round the corner, a few last minute festival preparations for everyone to try and get their horses good and proper. Nicky has hit the straps the last few weeks and Mullins looks to send his battalion out to the UK with a few good chances. However, I am going to try and find some value!

My first horse for you will be one that has had an interesting journey. A horse that ran in some decent races last year and is popping up in a handicap hurdle for Nicky Henderson and that is Argocat. He can be backed at around 13/2 overnight and looks like he could be chucked in IF he can achieve anything like his old form. He is running off 134 at Newbury tomorrow and has reached a mark of 162 over the bigger fences finishing 3 ¾ lengths off Felix Younger and back in 2014 managed to finish just 3 lengths behind Silviniaco Conti. Argocat is only 8 and if a change of scenery has helped, he could prove a mark of 134 is very lenient and hit the frame for us. 13/2 is a very fair price and I fancy him to go close.
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Ballynagour is a difficult horse to catch right. The break would have helped the Pipe runner and has been seen in some top company this year, notably chasing home Cue Card at Wetherby a few starts ago. He has run in the King George since and ran no kind of race. Easier assignment here and if we see the Ballynagour that almost chinned Silviniaco at Aintree last April, he could topple Rocky Creek at odds of 9/4.

The Betfair hurdle is the big race of the day. Worth a fair bit of cash to the winner and I am guessing that is the reason Willie has sent so many over. He is responsible for the favourite Blazer who was impressive last week. He is 5lb higher this week but is due a further hike up in the weights beyond this week, hence the quick turnaround. A pile of money has steamed into the Barry mount this week but at the prices, I fancy Affaire D’Honneur. Has some fancy entries and was a closing 2nd on British debut at Kempton over Christmas. Entered into the Supreme and Neptune at this moment in time shows how much Harry Whittington thinks of this horse. He is a great judge and with Gavin Sheehan on board, can go very close off a mark of 132. If he is a Grade 1 horse, will have to be a good 10lb higher and if this is the case, 10/1 looks a very nice price.

Posted in Uncategorized

Victoria Pendleton aims to ride at Cheltenham Festival

pendelton

Olympic cyclist Victoria Pendleton could make the big jump from the bike saddle to a horse saddle at this year’s Cheltenham Festival. The double Olympic champion retired from cycling in 2012 to focus on completing another one of her dreams – to race at Cheltenham. 

Pendleton is aiming to ride in the Foxhunter Chase at Cheltenham despite only completing in one race over jumps previously. Despite her inexperience, she has shown enough potential to impress racehorse owner Andy Stewart who has offered her a ride on Pacha Du Polder. The horse has previously been a runner-up in the Foxhunter Chase and is one of the most promising horses riding in the race this year. Bet site Coral currently have the horse at 25/1 but those odds could soon drop if Pendleton is officially announced as riding in the race. Whilst the former cyclist is sure to attract a lot of interest from fans, there is a real risk that she could fail to finish the race. But at these odds, she could well be worth a bet and you could even get a free bet on the race when you register on the Coral website. The Cheltenham free bet can be used on any of the odds on the site, and could be extremely lucrative if you take a change on a horse with long odds. 

As there are so many different races during the festival on the Cheltenham free bet site, has she got enough experience and potential to deserve your Cheltenham free bet? Well she has been working closely with trainer Alan Hill and his wife Lawney since deciding to make the career switch in March 2014. She made her racing debut in July 2015 at Newbury as an amateur jockey and finished a respectable 8th on the Mighty Mambo in the George Frewer Charity Race. After looking thrilled at finishing her first race, she took out her professional race license a month later. 
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Once she turned pro, she narrowly missed out on a win on Royal Etiquette at Ripon but was thrilled to take second place. She then returned to Yorkshire in September when she raced in Beverley but failed to recover from a bad start and could only secure a disappointing 13th place. Her bad luck continued when she was unseated from her horse after she lost balance on the final furlong of her third competitive race at Newbury. The result was a real shock as she was 4-1 favourite on most bet sites on horse Satanic Beat. 

But Great Britain’s most successful female Olympian performed a lot better in her most recent race. She finished fourth on Supreme Danehill, proving to fans that she could win a healthy return on your Cheltenham free bet. Her next race is now highly likely to be at the Foxhunter Chase at Cheltenham – a race she has very publically said has been her goal ever since she raced in her first amateur race. Despite a few disappointments in her career, she could use some of that Olympic competitive determination to perform well at her dream race this March. 

Posted in VHT

Golden Horn Leads the Way

golden horn

Golden Horn really intrigued me on Saturday. I am now paying full attention (I know, I know. I'm late). I felt this year's Coral-Eclipse was complimented by the quality of field, a genuine test for Gosdens Golden Horn. The Grey Gatsby & Western Hymn are very good horses & I rate them highly. Detorri broke out of the stalls a little slowly, but he gave Golden Horn a brilliant ride. Sent to the front Instantly & led the field. The Grey Gatsby & Jamie Spencer were the only pair that could mount challenge when it mattered.

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Golden Horn really proved himself to kick on & win by over three lengths. I think there's  more to come. I laugh less at single figure prices about him for the Ark, although owner, Oppenheimer said of the Ark "If it looked like being soft or heavy we wouldn't supplement him." The plan now for Golden Horn, according to Oppenheimer, If everything's good with him we'll go to the King George". "That's the most exciting thing to me. If he missed the King George then he would go to York for the Juddmonte". The Grey Gatsby has been reportedly targeted for the Juddmonte, in six weeks time.  

Posted in Ciaran Judge

Royal Ascot Day 5 Pointers

royal ascot

2.30 7f class 1 Chesham Stakes (Listed) –

Force silkForce 9/1 EW

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We fancied this runner on debut and was one for the notebook finishing well and showing a good attitude. Now up in trip with that experience under belt can go well.
 
3.05 1m 2f class 1 Wolferton Handicap (Listed) – 
 
Mahsoob silkMahsoob 15/8
 
Unbeaten runner who looks to have plenty more to come and sets the standard here. At around current price, looks the best bet of the day for us or one for the multiples.
 
3.40 1m 4f class 1 Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) – 
 
Postponed silkPostponed 10/3
 
Returned to the track in good form this year and stepping back up in trip on a quicker surface can show best form tomorrow.

4.20 6f class 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes (British Champions Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) – 

Undrafted silkUndrafted 12/1 EW
 
Usually gives good run for money and has decent pipe opener under belt. Back up in trip with Dettori on, looks a potential slice of value.
 
5.00 6f class 2 Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) –
 
Wide open race, one in which we are more than happy to watch with our money in our pocket.

5.35 2m 5f 159y class 2 Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) – 

Oriental Fox silk

Oriental Fox 9/1 EW.

Run to a good form in the past and sitting on a fair mark on return. Stays this far and seems sure to be wound up for this on return.

Posted in VHT Tips
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